![]() In fact, the June core personal consumption expenditures price index-which excludes volatile food and energy prices, and is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure-was up 4.1% on an annual basis. The FOMC has made tremendous progress in bringing down inflation, but it remains well above the Fed’s 2% long-term goal. The Fed has also acknowledged the banking crisis in early 2023 tightened credit conditions, potentially making it more difficult for companies to secure loans. The Federal Open Markets Committee projected full-year 2023 GDP growth of just 1% back in June, suggesting economic growth could soon slow to a crawl. economic outlook has improved in recent months, but economists still see a difficult road ahead. Why Are Investors Worried About a Recession? However, July job growth missed economist estimates of 200,000 new jobs, and job growth has slowed down significantly over the past year. ![]() That type of job growth doesn’t typically coincide with a U.S. In fact, the economy added 187,000 jobs in July. companies are still hiring and consumers are still spending. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will be releasing its revised estimate for second-quarter GDP on August 30.Īs of this writing, U.S. The NBER’s definition of a recession is somewhat vague: “A significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.” In the U.S., the National Bureau of Economic Research is tasked with officially calling U.S. By this common measure, there’s no recession in sight. GDP gained 2.4% in the second quarter of 2023, and the Atlanta GDPNow model is currently projecting another 3.5% gain in GDP in the third quarter as well. There is no universal definition, but analysts and investors commonly consider two consecutive quarters of contracting gross domestic product to be a recession. ultimately avoids a recession in 2023, the Fed’s aggressive monetary policy strategy from the past year and a half may only now be starting to have a negative impact on the economy. And just because the risk of a recession is fading, interest rates will remain higher for longer, meaning that investors should take a cautious approach to the market.Įven if the U.S. The Federal Reserve has warned over and over that its long campaign of rate hikes will slow economic growth, even if its most recent economic projections no longer foresee a recession. Other reliable indicators are flashing warning signs that the economy could still slump: Jobs data has started to fade, the yield curve remains inverted and experts are divided on whether a recession may have been delayed rather than avoided entirely. The New York Fed recession probability indicator shows there is still a 66% chance of a U.S. Inflation has trended consistently lower for months, but interest rates are at 20-year highs and a handful of economic indicators suggest the economy isn’t out of the woods just yet. Nevertheless, threats remain to this rosy scenario. This so-called “soft landing,” the sweet spot between cooling inflation and a still-growing economy, appears to be a real possibility. economy can avoid falling into recession in 2023. ![]() Horizon Organic said Growing Years milk is now available at select stores nationwide.Investors are more and more confident that the U.S. In partnership with a network of more than 600 certified organic family farms across the country, Horizon sources its milk from pasture-raised cows that spend at least 120 days grazing each year. While the nutrients found in Growing Years may be specially formulated for growing bodies, Horizon Organic said its commitment to quality and taste is consistent with the rest of its products. "Horizon Organic has been a trusted brand in my household for years, and I'm happy to see Growing Years give parents one less thing to worry about so they can spend more time being present for all those precious growing moments." "As a mom of three, I know firsthand what a whirlwind those early years are, and keeping track of everything, including nutrition, can be tough," said Frances Largeman-Roth, registered dietitian nutritionist, health expert and best-selling author. Every 8-ounce serving of Growing Years contains docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) omega-3 to support brain health, choline to transport DHA in the body, prebiotics that feed good stomach bacteria and vitamin D and calcium for strong, growing bones. According to Horizon, children's nutritional needs are not the same as adults, and food options need to reflect that important difference.
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